CHAINLETTER

CHAINLETTER

CHAINLETTER

Technical and On-Chain

A weekend update

Charlie Erith
Aug 09, 2025
∙ Paid
1
Share
  • ETF flows and price are diverging – how good is that?

  • BTC has retraced it’s steps, putting in strong downside protection

  • How much further can ETH rally?

  • SOL needs a new narrative, and fast

  • The importance of fees. Why we care about on-chain data

  • Hash rate to all time high

Technical

What do ETF flows tell us about price?

We have to be careful here, because ETFs are such a recent phenomenon and therefore it’s dangerous to draw conclusions.

The two charts below show bitcoin ETF inflows and holdings since August 2024. There are a couple of things that interest me here:

  1. Periods of negative weekly change (red bars, bottom chart) have been safer times to buy than periods of positive weekly change, assuming you want to buy and hold. We are in one of those safer periods now, on that basis.

  2. As far as I can tell, we are seeing the first episode where there are net outflows from ETFs, and yet the price is rising (orange circle). This is intriguing. It suggests that ETFs are not the main factor in bitcoin price formation. My guess is that larger buyers are accumulating away from the ETF scene which I would interpret as bullish. ETF buyers are likely to return as the price breaks higher.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to CHAINLETTER to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2025 Charles Erith
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture